Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.2% in 2018-19, a tad higher from 6.7% in the previous fiscal, mainly due to improvement in the performance of agriculture and manufacturing sectors, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said on Monday.
The CSO estimate is, however, a bit lower than 7.4% growth projected by the Reserve Bank for the current fiscal.
Releasing the first advance estimates of National Income for 2018-19, the CSO said, “The growth in GDP during 2018-19 is estimated at 7.2% as compared to the growth rate of 6.7% in 2017-18.”
The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 7.1% in 2016-17 and 8.2% in 2015-16.
“Real GVA (Gross Value Added) is anticipated to grow at 7% in the current fiscal as against 6.5% in 2017-18,” it said.
According to the CSO data, the expansion in activities in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ is likely to increase to 3.8% in the current fiscal from 3.4% in the preceding year.
The growth of the manufacturing sector is expected to accelerate to 8.3% this fiscal, up from 5.7% in 2017-18.
However, the mining and quarrying sector growth rate is estimated to decline from 2.9% in 2017-18 to 0.8% in current fiscal. Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting will too witness deceleration to 6.9% from 8% in the previous fiscal.
The growth rate of public administration, defence and other services will also dip to 8.9% from 10% last fiscal.
Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services growth is estimated at 9.4% in 2018-19, up from 7.2% in the last fiscal. Similarly, the construction sector is expected to grow at 8.9% from 5.7% previous fiscal. Financial, real estate & professional services’ growth will be a tad higher at 6.8% this fiscal against 6.6% in 2017-18.
According to the CSO estimates, the per capita net national income during 2018-19 will be ₹1,25,397, showing a rise of 11.1% as compared to ₹1,12,835 during 2017-18 with the growth rate of 8.6%.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), a barometer of investment, at current prices is estimated at ₹55.58 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against ₹47.79 lakh crore in 2017-18.
At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the GFCF is estimated at ₹45.86 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against ₹40.88 lakh crore in 2017-18.
In terms of GDP, the rates of the GFCF at Current and Constant (2011-12) prices during 2018-19 are estimated at 29.5% and 32.9%, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 28.5% and 31.4%, respectively in 2017-18.
The discrepancies in the GDP estimates for current fiscal has been pegged at ₹1,49,331 crore as against ₹2,23,504 crore in 2017-18.
The Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at ₹21.70 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against ₹19.08 lakh crore in 2017-18. At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the GFCE is estimated at ₹15.28 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against ₹14.0 lakh crore in 2017- 18.
In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2018-19 are estimated at 11.5% and 11.0%, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.4% and 10.8%, respectively in 2017-18. (PTI)